Although I have consistently argued differently, several political pundits argued that Prime Minister Dr Ralph Gonsalves, who is better known as “Comrade Ralph”, would not have been successful in his bid to win a third term.
This feat is an historic one for the labour movement in St Vincent which has previously never won three straight elections in the post-independence period.
The win also places Gonsalves within reach of Sir James Mitchell’s record of three successive wins (his first was as an independent candidate) and if Gonsalves remains in office until 2015 he would almost equal Sir James’ time in office as prime minister.
These initial observations are such that one is tempted to analyse these elections from the perspective of electoral records achieved by both leader and party.
This is a fascinating discourse that takes place ever mindful of the fact that all Caribbean leaders are looking on with considerable envy at St Kitts-Nevis Prime Minister Dr Denzil Douglas, elected in 1995, who by 2014 will equal the late Guyanese Prime Minister (1964-1980) and later President (1980-1985) Linden Forbes Sampson Burnham’s record for post-independence wins and time spent in the office.
These achievements do much for the psyche and ego of Caribbean leaders; however, I am not convinced that the domination of historical epochs by one leader does much for the development of our post-colonial politics or societies.
This review over the next two weeks will therefore focus on the peculiarities of this victory, its implications and also attempt to set the record straight regarding suggestions that the outcome was either surprising or inappropriately engineered.
One immediately notices that the Unity Labour Party’s (ULP) victory was a narrow one in which the government has two percentage points more than the opposition and already concerns have been raised about the vulnerability of this government.
Vulnerable
Certainly, this type of outcome would deem most Caribbean countries vulnerable in the same way that the 2002 Trinidad and Tobago parliament could not function with equal numbers.
The peculiarity of the Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) arrangement is; however, that they do not artificially separate the two houses of parliament in terms of membership and the prime minister can therefore augment his numbers in the Lower House by nominating senators and these officers thereafter guard the integrity of the government.
This means that the ULP government will not constantly be under threat of destabilisation from disaffected ULP MPs or occasional deficits caused by ministerial travel or illness.
In this regard, it should be noted that in the 2003 election, former Grenada Prime Minister Dr Keith Mitchell’s majority was reduced to one seat as well and he managed that administration for a full five years until the next election was due in 2008.
Regarding the issue of MPs defecting, it would also be useful to clarify an often misunderstood constitutional point about the way in which the prime minister is selected and removed.
Constitutionally, the prime minister is prime minister because he/she enjoys the support of a majority of MPs; however, these same persons are prevented from shifting their support to another person by virtue of a wonderful mechanism that gives a prime minister the right to call an election at any time even when challenged by a defection or vote of no-confidence.
This feature was demonstrated by the Democratic Labour Party (DLP) crisis here in 1994 when the Government collapsed and several people argued that the DLP could have selected another prime minister and continued in office.
In such scenarios, the defecting MPs are forced to weigh the pain of the party losing office (as the DLP did) against their desire to see the back of their leader.
The ULP victory is also significant from the perspective of party support, although it should be noted that the ULP administration is NOT unpopular like the New Democratic Party (NDP) administration of 1998 when Sir James held a majority of the seats with only 45 per cent of national support.
The ULP gained 52 per cent of votes cast and only one more seat; however, Gonsalves is in no less popular than the late Barbados Prime Minister David Thompson was after the 2008 election in which he gained 53 per cent of the votes cast and Antigua and Barbuda’s Prime Minister Baldwin Spencer who got 51 per cent of the popular vote.
This is a trend in recent Caribbean elections that should be noted and perhaps explored in a subsequent article and reflects the fact that Caribbean people seem no longer willing to convey a substantial portion of their support to one party and are electing governments with razor thin electoral majorities.
This implies that the fissure between Caribbean parties in terms of party support is narrowing and warrants analysis from the perspective of implications.
• Peter W. Wickham (peter.wickham@caribsurf.com) is a political consultant and a director of Caribbean Development Research Services (CADRES).
