NATION NEWS

Region to benefit
Published on: 8/20/06.

by Tony Best

WHILE TRINIDADIANS BASK in the glory of their country's good economic fortune, their neighbours should expect some trickle-down benefits.

In the case of Barbados, it should result in more investment by wealthy Trinis looking for a "stable" place to put their excess funds.

In the Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States, the additional money in the hands of the average Trinidadian should enhance the ability to buy more goods and services, especially food from Grenada, St Vincent and others next door.

Just as importantly, Trinidad and Tobago's pivotal position as the region's economic giant and its role as a member of the Caribbean Single Market and Economy (CSME) augur well for the future and for the ambitious efforts of various states to integrate their economies.

So said Standard & Poor's (S&P), the Wall Street credit-rating firm, as its reviewed Trinidad and Tobago's economic performance, assessed its outlook, and affirmed the twin island republic's stellar fiscal position and its credit rating.

"Clearly, it already has an impact on the region," said Robert Sifon Arevalo, the S&P analyst who monitors Trinidad and Tobago's economy.

"When you travel you see Trinidadian banks expanding throughout the region, increasing the amount of lending and the credit available for other islands and therefore contributing to the prospects for growth.

"You have businessmen, private sector investors and you have money from Trinidad, which is a small place. So, you can run out of options after a while, options of investments. So you do have that expansion that is benefiting the rest of the region."

S&P kept the country's high A- credit rating and changed the outlook from stable to positive.

With the economy expected to expand by double digits this year, and the long-term projection calling for continued sky-high energy prices which are fuelling much of Trinidad and Tobago's expansion, the prospects for continued prosperity remain good.

"Trinidad and Tobago is doing great and that should continue for a while," declared Sifon.

"As long as this place keeps getting better, clearly, it is going to be beneficial for the rest of the region."

Whether it is in providing food, cement, raw materials or professional services, and with a construction boom in Trinidad and Tobago requiring skilled labour, the trickle-down effect is bound to be felt in the Eastern Caribbean.

"The demand for them is quite large," explained Sifon.

Ironically, the importation of goods from its neighbours may help fuel inflation in Trinidad, which is expected to reach about eight per cent this year.

"On the other hand, the reverse isn't likely to happen, meaning Barbados and its Caribbean neighbours, who are feeling the pinch from rising oil prices, aren't being hit by cost-of-living increases caused by what's occurring next door in Trinidad.

"I think Barbados and others already have their own problems, inflation-wise, from the energy situation," he said.

"Clearly, that's the biggest problem in the region right now."

When S&P assessed the two sides of the economic coin, "there is an obvious benefit to having a neighbour whose economy is growing at such a pace," Sifon said.

But what about Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago?

After all, the two countries had a legal conflict that was recently settled by
an international tribunal with both sides claiming victory.

"Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago have a love-hate relationship," said Sifon.

"They need each other. Barbados can provide a lot of things, skilled labour, while it can benefit from Trinidad and Tobago's energy sector.

"It always helps to have a neighbour that is growing. You are always going to get some spillover. Then there is the stability of the Barbados financial sector, which is a place for the private sector of Trinidad and Tobago to look for diversification.

"In any search for diversification by Trinidadian businessmen everybody is going to benefit. Your closest neighbour is the one that is going to benefit the most."