We consider that the presentation of the data was most uncharacteristic, contradictory, misleading and, regrettably, irresponsible. From the outset, we wish to point out that we were totally unaware of the fact that an opinion poll was being conducted by the Nation Publishing Company at the time it was being conducted and we neither met with, nor were we invited to meet with the pollster or anyone associated with the poll prior to its publication or during the weekend when the poll was conducted.

In the same newspaper of Friday, September 21, 2006, in which THE NATION announced that a poll had been done and would be published on Sunday, there appeared an article by a former BLP Member of Parliament, Mr Ezra Alleyne, who attributed to the Democratic Labour Party certain activities in anticipation of an opinion poll to achieve a "spike" in our ratings. If nothing else, Mr Alleyne's accusation confirmed our view that it was known by BLP operatives before THE NATION formally announced it, that a poll was conducted because Mr Alleyne's article would have to have been written before the Friday on which THE NATION made the announcement.

Interpretation of the Poll

The Barbadian public is, we are sure, aware that any survey presents data collected. This data can be interpreted and indeed misinterpreted to reflect a particular perspective. In this regard, we think that several aspects of the data that are more flattering to the Democratic Labour Party have been either deliberately ignored or de-emphasised, and we would wish to present an alternative perspective.

We will leave the public to judge, in the final analysis, which interpretation they choose to believe.

A surge?

The first misconception that needs to be addressed is the concept of a "surge" advanced by the SUNDAY SUN writer. This assumes that 2005 is a base year for purposes of comparison. This is clearly an incorrect assumption. It is this erroneous assumption that mischaracterises the size and nature of the response in the poll to the Barbados Labour Party.

The last election was held in 2003. It would therefore have to be proper for 2003 to be the base year in any analysis since the learning on this subject of polls tells us that a mid-term, or out-of-season poll is always just a snapshot of public opinion which can, and in most cases, changes at the point that an election is called.

Relying on the CADRES estimate, the level of Barbados Labour Party support is now similar to that which it had in 2003, give or take a few percentage points which may merely accommodate the margin of error of the poll. There is therefore no logical or sensible basis for the suggestion or opinion, based on the poll numbers, that the Barbados Labour Party's support has "surged".

DLP swing

We contend that since the Democratic Labour Party now only needs an electoral swing of 7 per cent to win the next election, the possibility that Barbados Labour Party support could be on the lower fringe of the 56 per cent estimated by CADRES must be a major cause for concern on their part.

As a further caveat, Barbados has never before been exposed to mid-term polling, which is popular in the USA and in those environments it is noticeable that the level of fluctuation between elections is considerable. However, as we do considerably less polling here, we are likely to capture moments in time rather than trends.

Against this background and using 2003 as the base year, several perspectives will emerge which are much more flattering to the Democratic Labour Party than to the BLP.

31 per cent increase in those wanting change

We note, for example, that the 2003 CADRES polls showed that 29 per cent of Barbadians wanted a change of Government. In this most recent CADRES poll 38 per cent wanted a change of government! This means that in three years, over 30 per cent more Barbadians want a change of Government.

Since the Democratic Labour Party increased its seat share in 2003 by 250 per cent, we contend that this higher level of desire for change would already be reflected in a substantial improvement of the fortunes of the Democratic Labour Party.

Leadership

The issue of leadership is also one that we believe needs to be properly interpreted. The comparison of CADRES polls in 2003 with this most recent one demonstrates a clear improvement for the leader of the Democratic Labour Party and a corresponding deterioration in the fortunes of the BLP's leader.

The 2003 CADRES poll showed that 60 per cent of Barbadians wanted Owen Arthur to lead them. In the latest poll 49 per cent of Barbadians want to be led by Arthur. This demonstrates that his leadership stocks have fallen by a massive 18 per cent.

At the same time this poll tells us that the stocks of David Thompson continue to rise. In 2003 12 per cent of Barbadians wanted to be led by David Thompson. In this latest poll almost 30 per cent want to be led by him. This is a substantial increase of 142 per cent. This is particularly important since David Thompson has gained more ground than Arthur has lost.

David Thompson's popularity growth has been steady.

Noticeably, his popularity did not dip in 2005 like Arthur's, whose fell by almost 45 per cent.

The Democratic Labour Party also feels that greater attention needs to be paid to the issue of leadership in the Barbados Labour Party, since it is clear that Arthur's leadership increased at his deputy's expense. This demonstrates that the only way that Arthur can improve his stocks, is by some further political humiliation and intimidation of Mia Mottley.

In the case of the Democratic Labour Party, the leadership stocks of Thompson have not grown at the expense of anyone in the party and have even grown while he was not at the helm of the DLP.

On this same issue, the poll showed that David Thompson was more popular within his party than Arthur was among his supporters and this is yet another important peculiarity that seems to have been strangely missed by the SUNDAY SUN writer. It is a perspective not to be missed as it demonstrates quite clearly that Arthur's support has, as his detractors in the BLP often say, softened considerably since 2003.

Thompson is more popular among his party's supporters

The statistics are very clear on the point that some 77 per cent of Barbados Labour Party supporters want Arthur, while 87 per cent of Democratic Labour Party supporters want David Thompson.

This tells us very unequivocally who is the more popular leader among his supporters and who will have leadership challenges as soon as his deputy begins to do that which she has been threatening to do privately.

Failing grades for BLP

The writer in the SUNDAY SUN commentary conveniently ignored one aspect of the analysis which the Democratic Labour Party considers important. The poll highlighted major dissatisfaction that Barbadians have with the performance of the BLP Government. In no instance did the BLP get even six out of a possible high score of 10 for their handling of any issue.

At the national level the BLP Government received mediocre grades from Barbadians and in the case of housing and the cost of living, they received failing grades. Uncertain voters have graded the BLP as having failed in housing, employment, roads and the cost of living. Uncertain voters feel that government has failed in every key area. A score of five out of ten cannot be taken to be a pass and we agree with these voters. That is one reason why we are advocating the need for a change in administration in this country.

This level of public dissatisfaction with the performance of a government is unprecedented and it is located in the key areas in which the Government is trying desperately to widen its propaganda advantage. The public, however, is not buying into the empty pledges and promises which flow every night on our television screens.

Conclusion

Over the past two weeks, the Democratic Labour Party has held two public meetings. The level of attendance by the public has stunned our opponents and, quite frankly, humbled our party into an acknowledgement that our citizens want a government that cares about their present problems and will seek to solve them. Having the opportunity to speak directly to the people in their thousands has, we know, created a ripple across our nation.

The public opinion poll which was done two weeks ago would not have tested that response to our announcement of new policies, introduction of new candidates or our readiness to govern. In time, those assessments will be made. In the meantime, we will keep up our people's fora and will not deviate from our current path of public enlightenment.

The Democratic Labour Party has taken note of the fact, revealed by the poll, that Barbadians are unfamiliar with its agenda for Barbados. Correcting this will be the subject of a national campaign over the next few months leading up to the general election when our candidates, Members of Parliament and supporting team led by David Thompson will cover every nook and cranny of our island.

We know that without our full slate of candidates being announced, there may be perceptions among the public that the Democratic Labour Party is not ready. This will be dealt with shortly and we are sure that the Barbadian public and voters will be very pleased with the Democratic Labour Party team that emerges.

We are grateful to the people of Barbados for their generous endorsement of our leadership choice as reflected in the CADRES poll and we are confident that the next such exercise will demonstrate a similar level of confidence in the party.