POLITICAL analyst Peter Wickham thinks there were no winners after yesterday’s changing of the guard in the Opposition Barbados Labour Party.
The country’s best known pollster told the DAILY NATION the leadership duel between Owen Arthur and Mia Mottley exposed the divide in respect of leadership of the party.
“I don’t know if it is necessarily a good outcome for the Barbados Labour Party. Owen has taken over the party in the middle of a major crisis.
“I am not sure if this will endear him to many of the people in the party, many of whom are women, who may be of the view that Mia has been treated unfairly. I would say it’s been a sad day for the BLP and Mia Mottley. It’s been a sad day for all of them. There are no winners in this,” he said.
Arthur became Leader of the Opposition – a day after his 61st birthday – when he garnered the support of four other MPs, George Payne, Dale Marshall, Gline Clarke and Ronald Toppin. The five constituted a majority for the nine-member BLP parliamentary group.
Wickham said Mottley had good reason to feel betrayed, and it was important for the new leadership to bridge the gap in the party.
“I am not sure that the BLP needs this. They could have done without this at this point in time.
“They may feel they have won the battle but they may lose the war in the final analysis. That would be the concern I would have if I were a BLP supporter,” he said.
According to him, this was a chance for Mottley to quietly bide her time.
“What I have picked up from reading her speech is that she is still very much committed to the party and leaving her political future in the hands of God.
“I would tend to think that she will sit quietly for the time being, will continue to mark time politically, and wait for another opportunity to re-emerge. I don’t think that we can write the (political) obituary for Miss Mottley,” he said.
Wickham felt that Mottley would at some stage become Prime Minister of Barbados.
“If this election is not won, it would put her in an excellent position for the next battle, but if Arthur becomes the leader of the country once more, it does not diminish her chance of becoming Prime Minister.
“Arthur cannot continue to serve forever and ultimately, leadership will fall to her,” he said.
Wickham said it would be interesting to see how the BLP supporters reacted, how the women in the party reacted, and ultimately what they could do.
“If they support Mia, the only way they can show her support is by voting for her in her constituency. If they don’t reside in her constituency, they either have to support the status quo or not vote, and I am anxious to see what happens in this regard.”
Wickham said Arthur was just marginally popular than Mottley, and he had not seen any evidence to indicate the BLP could win the next general election.
“I have not seen a lot of evidence to show me that the BLP will take the next general election. That would take me by surprise if that did happen.
“Based on my poll, he is as popular as she is. There is a small lead for him, but not a runaway gap,” Wickham said.
