A Central Bank forecast that the Barbados economy will return to real growth next year is being shared by economists in a key section of the Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs.
But while the bank recently forecast that the economy would grow by two per cent in 2015 and 2.3 per cent the following year, the Research and Planning Unit in the Economic Affairs Division expects a lower 1.2 per cent growth next year and 2.5 per cent in 2016.
The Ministry of Finance economists outlined their expectations in the just-released Barbados Economic Review January to June 2014.
In the economic review report for the first three quarters of this year, Central Bank Governor Dr DeLisle Worrell said: “The Barbados economy is firmly set on the path to sustainable growth, led by the sectors and activities in which we have a demonstrated comparative advantage over the competition, in terms of quality, productivity and the strength of the Barbados brand.
“Focused efforts are under way, with the assistance of international financial institutions, to raise the level of public sector performance. The Barbados economy is forecasted to grow by 2 percent in 2015 and by 2.3 percent in 2016.”
In its own report dated September 2014, the Economic Affairs Division said “the economic outlook for 2014 will hinge primarily on what occurs in the global market”.
“Growth in the Barbados economy is estimated to be 1.2 per cent in 2015 and 2.5 per cent in 2016. This is based more so on the performance of the tourism sector and the international business and the services sectors,” it said.
“An estimated $355 million investment in projects comprising upgrades and refurbishments of hotels and tourism amenities, along with an international business and financial services sector strategy that includes the continual upgrade of Barbados’ regulatory framework; the extension of Barbados’ double taxation network; as well as the development of new markets and products are some of the major catalysts for growth being undertaken.
“The construction of a waste-to-energy plant by the private sector and the adoption of solar generation by businesses and households are welcomed initiatives to growth,” the economists added.
In its review for the first six months of the year, the division said: “During the first six months of 2014 real GDP within the Barbadian economy remained flat despite improved tourism arrivals of 4.7 per cent.”
