by CHERYL HAREWOOD

WORLD TOURISM is expected to grow by an average of four per cent over the next ten years, according to Jean-Claude Baumgarten, president of the World Travel Tourism Council.

Baumgarten said that with the Caribbean so dependent on travel and tourism, proper air access must be realised with airlines combining forces in order to survive.

Baumgarten noted that world travel and tourism economies' gross domestic product "is now expected to contract in 2009 by 3.5 per cent and grow by a mere one per cent in 2010, significantly below its long-term trend of four per cent".

He said these statistics were based on past trends and in light of the world economy.

The tourism expert added that the slowdown in the industry started in the second half of 2008, and there was a 4.6 per cent decline recorded in December 2008, compared to the previous year, and to the five per cent increase from January to June. He said the negative trend continued into 2009.

"We are in a time when things are shrinking substantially. Without capital investment our industry will not survive," Baumgarten told delegates attending the recent Caribbean Hotel's investment conference in Bermuda.

He said that while the negative impact of the travel and tourism industry in 2009 looked very worrying, "the industry is resilient", and that indication showed individuals would take shorter but multiple yearly trips.

He added that tourism would continue to be strong and the United States would continue to be the No. 1 market.

He stressed, however, that the Miiddle East was growing significantly and would grow by 13 per cent by the year 2013.

"There will also be a fantastic growth of outbound travel from China. By 2020 over 100 million Chinese will travel, if trends continue. However, Japan will outgrow China to become the No. 1 market," he said.