by SIR JOHN GODDARD

THE ENERGY POLICY COMMITTEE in the Ministry of Energy and the Environment has prepared a draft document on The National Energy Policy of Barbados. It is dated December 2006 and debate on the resolution to recognise that Draft Policy has not yet been completed in Parliament.

To quote from the executive summary of the document: "The goals, principles, objectives and strategies outlines in National Energy Policy are part of a vision to transition Barbados into a fully developed country by 2020. Policy initiatives have been presented to ensure sustainability in the energy sector both economically and environmentally."

Government is to be commended for the timely preparation of this draft document which I understand will be distributed to the public shortly for study and comment, before a final "Resolution to recognise the Barbados National Energy Policy and to request the Government to implement this policy in the shortest possible time" is submitted for approval by Parliament.

Sensible National Energy Policies in any part of the world at the preset time must be developed with reference to "Climate Change". According to the 700 page study, The Economics of Climate Change, recently compiled by Sir Nicholas Stern for the United Kingdom government, "the world has to act now on climate change or face devastating economic consequences".

The stocks of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (including carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxides and a number of gases that arise from industrial processes) are rising, as a result of human activity. The current level of stock of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is equivalent to around 430 parts per million (ppm) CO2, compared with only 280 ppm before the Industrial Revolution. These concentrations have already caused the world to warm by more than half a degree Celsius and will lead to at least a further half degree warming over the next few decades, because of the inertia in the climate system.

Sir Nicholas was the former chief economist of the World Bank and key points that he has raised in his review include:

Temperature

* Carbon emissions have already pushed up global temperatures by half a degree Celsius.

* If no action is taken on emissions, there is more than a 75 per cent chance of global temperatures rising between two and three degrees Celsius over the next 50 years.

* There is a 50 per cent chance that average global temperatures could rise by five degrees Celsius.

Environmental Impact

* Melting glaciers will increase flood risk.

* Crop yields will decline, particularly in Africa.

* Rising sea levels could leave 200 million people permanently displaced.

* Up to 40 per cent of species could face extinction.

* There will be more examples of extreme weather patterns.

Economic Impact

* Extreme weather could reduce gross domestic product (GDP) by up to one per cent.

* A two to three degrees Celsius rise in temperatures could reduce global economic output by three per cent.

* If temperatures rise by five degrees Celsius, up to 10 per cent of global output could be lost. The poorest countries would lose more than 10 per cent of their output.

* In the worst case scenario global consumption per head would fall 20 per cent.

* To stabilise at manageable levels, emissions would need to stabilise in the next 20 years and fall between one per cent and three per cent after that. This would cost one per cent of GDP.

Options For Change

* Reduce consumer demand for heavily polluting goods and services.

* Make global energy supply more efficient.

* Act on non-energy emissions — preventing further deforestation would go a long way towards alleviating this source of carbon emissions.

* Produce cleaner energy and transport technology, with non-fossil fuels accounting for 60 per cent of energy output by 2050.

Government responses to climate change/global warming have been recommended in the Review. It is a global challenge and each country will have to design its own response based on its own circumstances. The problem is both real and serious. For the first time in human history, mankind can and is destroying the world and making it unliveable for future generations. If noting is done to counter this, it will start happening very soon, certainly in the lifetime of our own children.

The problem is not solely a scientific or technical one. It is a moral problem as well and therefore should concern us all from the mere fact that we are human beings.

Three quotations from Sir Nicholas Stern in his review are worth noting carefully.

"Climate change is the greatest market failure the world has never seen, and it interacts with other market imperfections".

"Whilst there is much more that we need to understand – both in science and economics – we know enough now to be clear about the magnitude of the risks, the time-scale for action and how to act effectively".

"That's why I'm optimistic – having done this review – that we have the time and knowledge to act. But only if we act internationally, strongly and urgently".

* Sir John Goddard is an independent senator, social commentator and retired businessman.