by CAROL MARTINDALE, SUNDAY SUN Editor

THE RULING Barbados Labour Party (BLP) could yet win a fourth term in Tuesday's general election.

But according to new polling information available, the win might be marginal.

Predictions are that the BLP could net between 16 to 20 seats, with an estimated 50.4 per cent to 53.4 per cent of the popular vote.

The Democratic Labour Party (DLP) on the other hand, is likely to get between ten and 14 seats, which would represent between 49.6 per cent and 46.6 per cent of the popular vote, it said.

This was stated in a public opinion poll released yesterday by the Cave Hill Associates Polling Organisation, known as the CHAPO/Boxill Poll.

An earlier opinion poll prepared by CADRES (Caribbean Development Research Services) and published on Friday, suggested a statistical dead heat, but its director Peter Wickham, said trends suggested a DLP victory. That poll predicted the DLP would get 35.4 per cent and the BLP 30.1 per cent of the popular vote.

The CHAPO/Boxill Poll's case for another BLP term was based on 41.5 per cent support for its candidates over 36.2 per cent for the DLP team.

The pollsters also pointed out that their predictions were based on data already collected, and the possibility of events intervening between then and Election Day could yet affect the final result.

This poll had a sample of 1 294 enumerated voters, and was conducted between January 4 and 7, in 125 districts across all parishes. The poll has a plus/minus three per cent margin of error.

Bees are Capable

Barbadians also believed that the BLP was the party best capable of leading the country. It was ahead by 13 .2 per cent, a decline, however, of 2.3 per cent for the BLP since a December poll also conducted by CHAPO/Boxill.

And on the issue of leadership, voters said this, too, would be critical to how they would vote. Prime Minister Owen Arthur was once again identified as the person best suited to lead with 48.1 per cent of the voters supporting him, while Thompson got 33.1 per cent.

It is expected that in this election, more women will vote for the BLP, while men are evenly split between the two parties, reports the opinion poll.

The CHAPO/Boxill team is made up of Professor Ian Boxill, polling director; Dr George Belle, analyst; and Dion Greenidge, data manager.

For the full report please turn to Pages 12A and 13A.