by TREVOR YEARWOOD

WORKERS HOPING FOR hefty pay increases to cope with rising commodity prices may be in for some disappointment.

This is so even though the Barbados Workers' Union (BWU) has called for "double-digit" pay increases, possibly more than 15 per cent, for the lowest paid workers.

Ahead of negotiations for thousands of public service employees, both the BWU and the National Union of Public Workers (NUPW) appear to be treading cautiously.

Labour leaders concede that the economy's capacity to take further pressure and the threat of job losses or of lower employment are among factors they have to consider in framing the pay hike proposal.

One troubling question for the unions is whether the tax bite into any new increases would be so big as to leave workers hardly any better off.

Another is whether more money in circulation would trigger new rounds of commodity and service price increases and virtually wipe out the gains.

And if that is not bad enough for those seeking huge wage hikes, economists and employers are talking more of the need to link pay increases to the level of productivity.

"While one can justify proposals at the level of double digits, it is a question of balancing what we want with what the economy can afford," NUPW general secretary Dennis Clarke told the SUNDAY SUN.

"One still has to be careful that we do not put the man or woman at the bottom (of the pay scale) in a position where he or she finds themselves getting more money but then their take-home pay is less than what they were getting before.

"We also have to ensure that we do not find ourselves back in a 1992 situation where you have wages chasing after or leapfrogging over prices and prices leapfrogging over wages."

Submission soon

With negotiations between the unions and Government expected to start soon on a pay agreement to replace one that ended last March 31, Clarke said the NUPW "very shortly should be in a position to make a submission" to the Ministry of the Civil Service.

"But as to whether or not we will submit double-digit increases depends on (what is found) when our council analyses the situation and we look at the best way forward for workers," he pointed out.

He said the rate of inflation alone, against a backdrop of rising fuel and food prices, might justify a double-digit wage increase.

However, the union had to ask the question: could the increase its members demand push the situation "to the edge", where one could see layoffs in the public service?

BWU general secretary and chairman of the Congress of Trade Unions and Staff Associations of Barbados (CTUSAB), Sir Roy Trotman, started the talk about a double-digit pay increase.

As far as the BWU was concerned, he said a 15 per cent hike which was spoken of previously would have to be adjusted upwards.

However, in an interview he underscored the need for sacrifices from all sides as Barbadians faced up to sharply rising commodity prices and a demand for matching pay increases.

"The first thing that people have to do is to recognise that there are no quick-fix solutions," he told the SUNDAY SUN. "Even if they (workers) were able to go out there and to get a bucketful of money, that is not going to be the answer to the problem . . .

"We will have in the unions to be carefully examining the matrix wages versus jobs, wages versus new jobs, wages versus economic stability, wages versus education, wages and provisions for health.

"So the exercise has to be one in which the total picture of national welfare, the national environment and national growth must be examined. We did that in 1991, where the problem was greater than I perceive now and though this may get worse, it is not there."

Sir Roy said workers could not be the only ones expected to make sacrifices in the circumstances.

"We want to see that extended to all levels, including those people who are professionals and not merely people who are wage-earners," he said.

Like Clarke, he highlighted the need to maintain job levels.

The last pay increase for public sector workers totalled ten per cent – 7.5 per cent effective April 1, 2006, and 2.5 per cent from April 2007.

The increases were expected to cost the Government $75 million – $55 million in Year 1 and $20 million in Year 2, pushing the public sector wages bill over $700 million over two years.

Government legislated the pay hike after turning down a CTUSAB proposal for a 15 per cent hike at the bottom and eight per cent at the top that Government calculated would have cost $326 million over two years.

How high the unions will go this year is anybody's guess, but both the BWU and the NUPW indicated they wanted a better deal for workers at the bottom of the private and public sectors – maids, gardeners, drivers, messengers, general workers, guards, dishwashers, shop assistants and bus- and bell-people in the hotel sector.

The minimum wages for shop assistants is $200 a week. The lowest wage in the hotel sector is said to be about $229.07 per week, but this is boosted by the service charge.

Some maids, gardeners and messengers in the public service earn roughly $400 weekly.

Economist Tennyson Beckles was one of those promoting the idea of linking pay increases to productivity.

"I am of the belief that wages should not move faster than the rate of productivity," he said. "We have to be careful in this particular time."

While there was need for wage adjustment, he conceded, "if you push wages far beyond productivity, then it's going to impact on the value of money at some time".

It would also negatively impact the future ability of the country to invest and, probably, continue to grow, he reasoned.

"I would like to see more of those systems put in place," he said.

"On the other hand, I think that all of us have to bear some of the pain of the oil increases and do not expect our wages to rise as fast as the rate of price increases.

"Over the immediate period we have to recognise that our standard of living is going to be dampened somewhat.

"If we try to make out ourselves uncompetitive in the market, it is going to be worse for us," Beckles added.

Executive director of the Barbados Employers' Confederation (BEC), Harry Husbands, said BEC members were underscoring the need for "moderation" of wage demands at a time when the full impact of the international rise in prices was yet to be felt in Barbados.

BEC members came out of a recent closed-door meeting at Sherbourne Conference Centre agreeing that working in conjunction with the unions and Government, businesses could survive any challenges and emerge stronger from this period of uncertainty.

l trevoryearwood@nationnews.com