by Stacey Russell

THE TOURISM ENGINE that
helped power Barbados' economy
to four per cent growth last quarter might not be at full throttle in
the second segment of the year.

"I think this will be a tough second quarter, with little growth if any at all," Barbados Hotel and Tourism Association (BHTA) president
Alvin Jemmott told BARBADOS BUSINESS AUTHORITY last
Friday about the local tourism sector.

Like the majority of financiers surveyed for KPMG's Fourth Annual Regional Banking Survey, presented at the Caribbean Hotel
and Investment Conference
in Port-of-Spain last week, he was convinced that rising oil prices would hinder long-stay arrivals because airlines would pass on higher fuel
costs to consumers.

Also, he said, "evidence of slowing United States and United Kingdom economies" would likely keep
tourism in a "holding pattern".

Jemmott noted that tourism performance was usually flat in
May and June, and present market dynamics should encourage home vacationing "to keep our valuable foreign exchange at home".

"Hotels should be creative and
offer specials for locals to spend their vacation here; they will get their holiday but keep the country's foreign reserves [$1.65 billion at the end
of March] intact," he posited.

Barbados' Crop-Over Festival would attract visitors in July-August, and the Best Of Barbados promotion – featuring free nights of stay, air travel credit and discounts on attractions to entice travellers here
for the summer season – held good financial prospects for the sector, Jemmott stated.

Moreover, the strengthening Canadian dollar should break the
low Canadian arrivals trend during the summer, he suggested.

Considering the possibility of the Summer Olympics diverting tourists to China, he said: "By itself that
would not have a negative impact. With economic slowdown in the
United States and Britain, some
people may opt to stay home rather than travel. But they are not likely
to flock to China."

Last month-end, Central Bank of Barbados governor Dr Marion Williams said that in 2008, for the first time since 2004, tourism and manufacturing drove the local economy in the first quarter of a financial year.