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Forecasters predicting above-average hurricane season


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Forecasters predicting above-average hurricane season

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COLLEGE PARK – Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Centre say the Atlantic could see another above-normal hurricane season this year.

For the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through November 30, forecasters predict a 45 per cent chance of an above-normal season, a 35 per cent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 20 per cent chance of a below-normal season.

Forecasters predict a 70 per cent likelihood of 11 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which five to nine could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including two to four major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).

An average season produces 12 named storms of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

These numbers include Tropical Storm Arlene, a rare pre-season storm that formed over the eastern Atlantic in April.

“The outlook reflects our expectation of a weak or non-existent El Nino, near- or above-average sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and average or weaker-than-average vertical wind shear in that same region,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Centre.

Strong El Ninos and wind shear typically suppress development of Atlantic hurricanes, so the prediction for weak conditions points to more hurricane activity this year. Also, warmer sea surface temperatures tend to fuel hurricanes as they move across the ocean.

Names of 2017 Atlantic Storms

Arlene

Harvey

Ophelia

Bret

Irma

Philippe

Cindy

Jose

Rina

Don

Katia

Sean

Emily

Lee

Tammy

Franklin

Maria

Vince

Gert

Nate

Whitney

However, the climate models are showing considerable uncertainty, which is reflected in the comparable probabilities for an above-normal and near-normal season.

“NOAA’s broad range of expertise and resources support the nation with strong science and service before, during and after each storm to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy as we continue building a Weather-Ready Nation,” said Ben Friedman, acting NOAA administrator.

“From our expert modellers to our dedicated forecasters and brave crews of our hurricane hunters, we’ll be here to warn the nation every step of the way this hurricane season.” (PR)

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