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The Barbados Meteorological Services is continuing to closely monitor an area of low pressure centred near 12N 39.5W at 11 a.m. today.
This feature is associated with a tropical wave about 1 355 miles or 2 180 kilometres to the east of Barbados. The system has shown a slow improvement in organisation over the past 12 to 24 hours and a tropical depression could form later today or tomorrow, a bulletin said.
The system is forecast to track west-northwestward near 15 mph (25 km/h) over the next few days and is forecast to pass well north of Barbados on Friday.
Conditions are somewhat favourable for slow development of this system over the next 48 hours. Mid-level dry air is currently eroding the deep convection over the eastern and southeastern sections of the system, exposing the centre of circulation to the southeast of the deep convection.
By late Wednesday into Thursday numerical guidance suggests that there should be more readily available moisture for the system, increasing the chance of intensification. By Friday, southwesterly wind shear is expected to significantly affect the system structure, resulting in weakening as it nears the northern Leewards.
The public is advised to monitor updates from the Barbados Meteorological Services over the next few days. The next update will be at noon on Wednesday or sooner if conditions warrant. (PR)